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Cramer on BloggingStocks: What an awful moment

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we're destroying huge amounts of capital, and investors are sick of it.

No big mergers and acquisitions (although my fingers are crossed about Altria (NYSE: MO) (Cramer's Take), because MO needs growth and UST's (NYSE: UST) (Cramer's Take) really good). No initial public offerings of any consequence since Visa (NYSE: V) (Cramer's Take) despite a huge queue of private-to-go-public deals. No private-equity deals despite incredibly low valuations, valuations so minuscule that deals would have been done at gigantic premiums from here and still be much less expensive than they were. No threatening stakes by swashbuckling hedge funds. No new huge buybacks or dividend boosts, save CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL) (Cramer's Take), not that anyone cared about that one.

No nothin'.

It is an amazing time. It is the first week of an admittedly almost always bad month, but that's almost always because we are up going into September and funds want to lock in good gains.

Nothing to lock in now.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: What an awful moment

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Prudential's strength is a marker for deflation

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this insurance company is a sign of lower costs, and it's not done yet.

How many ways can I explain that what's going on is massively deflationary? How about by pointing out one of the most sensitive stocks to deflation: Prudential (NYSE: PRU) (Cramer's Take). Take a look at the move this stock has had from its lows. It's almost a 50% move! That's remarkable. It is a sign that everything is worth less than it was a couple of months ago!

I have long used the price of conservative insurance companies -- and PRU is a conservative one -- as a gauge of inflation. Now, I know that Barron's had a positive article about PRU this weekend, but all you really got was a rehash of what an analyst has been saying. That's not behind the gain.

This company is a bulwark of deflation. Why anyone thinks that inflation is still a problem after looking at that chart is just nuts.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Prudential's strength is a marker for deflation

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Big players are bullying this puny market

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the oil stocks' decline yesterday was exacerbated by a hedge fund's collapse.

"I think the collapse in the commodity stocks shows a worldwide recession."

"The decline in oil and oil service stocks, far more severe than the decline in the commodity, bodes for $80 oil and gas."

"Without a hurricane hitting rigs, the companies involved in the servicing and maintaining rigs will have severe earnings declines, at least according to their stocks."

These are three perfectly acceptable analyses of the action in the Oil Services HOLDRs (AMEX: OIH) (Cramer's Take) and in the oils in general yesterday in light of Gustav's failure to do any real damage and a continued expectation that economies around the world are slowing.

It's just that they are false takeaways. The single most material issue for the stocks -- not the companies -- was the collapse of Ospraie Management, which blew up and got blown out and took a ton of stocks down with it. The fact that this market is thin, that lots of players clearly knew this blowup was coming, and that the fund was no doubt leveraged up the wazoo (as all desperate managers tend to be) exacerbated the declines perhaps two- or threefold.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Big players are bullying this puny market

Cramer on BloggingStocks: This retail tide can lift all boats

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says with gas coming down further, the coming rally could be broad and fierce.

The great hurricane fakeout leaves us with oil much lower than it began, having launched itself from $112. Now that the $110 level's been breached and natural gas has gone as low as $7.50, we can begin to put together a holiday scenario that might -- just might -- explain the incredible run in retail that's been going on.

The presumption in retail, if you use Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) as retail, was that once the stimulus wore off, presumably last month, the stocks would get hammered. On Aug. 7, Wal-Mart as much as told you that, and the stock dropped to $57 from $60.90.

Ever since then, it has been creeping up. Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) (Cramer's Take) dropped a point from that warning, going from $45 to $44. It is now at $49. Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take) went from $19.80 to $18.90 before bouncing to $20.82. Jones (NYSE: JNY) (Cramer's Take) went from $17.40 to $17.20 before roaring to $19.80. Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) (Cramer's Take), because of a great quarter, didn't even get hurt, rallying from $67 to $75.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: This retail tide can lift all boats

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Dell loses its Street cred once again

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says intra-quarter signs that all was well were far off the mark.

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) (Cramer's Take) totally fooled us. Throughout the quarter, we heard rumblings that things were just right.

Instead, Dell gave us a quarter that reminds us that the body language in tech has become meaningless. Never forget that you can only trust these guys on the day they report, and that report -- with its depictions of a slowdown across all geographies -- made me want to go out and pick up some Altria (NYSE: MO) (Cramer's Take).

The Dell report reminds me of Nordson (NASDAQ: NDSN) (Cramer's Take), another company that has made you feel all rosy about the international markets. But with that industrial play, it was only Europe that was bad.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Dell loses its Street cred once again

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Don't bother with the private-equity chatter

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the only action in the sector is that the rumor mill is spinning overtime.

There are tons of ridiculous stories that can be written in the Naked City. Notice that every day we are blessed with a story about how there are three private-equity firms examining Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) and Neuberger Berman (NYSE: NEU) (Cramer's Take). I think I have read that story a dozen times now.

You can list them, too: Blackstone (NYSE: BX) (Cramer's Take), KKR (NYSE: KFN) (Cramer's Take), Apollo (NASDAQ: AINV) (Cramer's Take), maybe Cerberus. What are they going to do, deny it? "No, we are not looking at it?" Their investors would love that: "Well what the heck are they doing with our money?" would be the reaction of investors if they issued denials. I predict weeks more of phantom tire-kicking of Lehman by nonexistent private-equity firms.

How about private equity about to swarm over collateralized debt obligations? Usual cast of characters there. Right? Come on, those stories are a penny a dozen. Every day I read about them. But nobody, other than Lone Star, is doing anything, anything at all on this front. If there were buyers, you can bet that Lehman and AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) wouldn't be in the woods, lost, hopeless, with tons of bad European paper.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Don't bother with the private-equity chatter

Cramer on BloggingStocks: All eyes on BankUnited

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this bank on the FDIC's problem list is big enough to matter.

How much was made of the FDIC's "problem bank" list yesterday? Frankly, a little too much -- the list could be 200 banks long and be insignificant or it could be five banks long and be of incredible importance.

Is there any doubt that that the FDIC can handle 100 banks of the $1 billion to $2 billion variety? There shouldn't be. They can look the other way on most of them if they have to, or close them sequentially while asking for more capital along the way.

But if BankUnited (NASDAQ: BKUNA) (Cramer's Take) with $7 billion in deposits goes under, that'd makes headlines. It would be particularly newsworthy because it is in a visible location (the Miami area) and would cause a flood of stories about older people worried about their deposits -- pensioners -- and a big round of stories about how horrible Florida real estate really is. Then you get stories about how IndyMac and BankUnited represent the "system," and when you add that to the woes of Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) -- which are now directly making it harder to get cheap mortgage money because they are paying through the nose for their own money and buying fewer mortgages, just want we don't need -- and you get headlines galore about how bad things are. When you couple that with the inaction of Treasury on the FNM/FRE front, you are going to be in for a test of the July 15 lows.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: All eyes on BankUnited

Cramer on BloggingStocks: It's never quite as dire as it seems

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that even in lousy markets -- and this is one of them -- you can find stocks to buy.

When nothing's working, something's working. I know sounds counterintuitive. but there is simply no reason to think, as bad as this market is -- and it is really, really bad -- that there isn't something to buy.

We are gripped by the fear of the remaining black holes -- Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take), GM (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take), Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take), AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take), Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take), WaMu (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) -- and we all know it. They are not convenient whipping boys. They are the Seven Deadly Stocks, and they aren't going away.

But are they really hurting General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take)? Can I see selling Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) because of them? After we know the price increases are all baked in? And don't hit me with that strong-dollar stuff, because GIS doesn't have that much overseas exposure. Same with Pepsi (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take): This is a national company with an international arm that is generating oodles of cash and doesn't have as much bad commodity exposure as it did a few months ago.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: It's never quite as dire as it seems

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The GSEs are still at sea

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the whole market pays for the Treasury's purposeful indecision.

What are they going to do about the preferreds? Are they going to let them go down the drain? Are they going to keep current management? What are they going to do to reassure foreign governments about the obligations.

Don't worry. We will know this weekend.

Oops.

That's how we left last Friday, with an understanding that the Treasury knows that every day it waits to take over Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) is a day when things get worse, when the nation's credibility darkens -- as this is sovereign debt's repository -- and when rates can't go down.

But the Treasury's not like what we think it is. The Treasury wants to wait for a collapse; it wants everyone to know that Fannie and Freddie are history because it is afraid. It doesn't want to be interventionist, and if it does, it wants the people who run Fannie and Freddie gone, and yet it doesn't' really know how to do it until we have total collapse. Then it has the cover of total collapse and doesn't have to say it intervened or bailed out or whatever it is so worried about.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The GSEs are still at sea

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Halt this unfair trading in Fannie and Freddie

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says news is not being properly disseminated, and some people are getting an unfair edge.

I love how easily I am misunderstood by people who have about one-tenth the history I have in the markets. I love it, because their dogmatic criticism of me is so unfounded and anti-historical, not to mention totally un-rigorous, that I get a kick out of reading it.

I am talking, of course, about the outrageous trading in Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) over the last few days.

My beef: For most of the last 80 years, when there was "unusual activity" in a stock, as you would certainly have to say there has been here, the New York Stock Exchange or the company or even the SEC would call a halt in trading, the reason being that it is clear there is news that is not being properly disseminated. Halting trading is something that is done to level the playing field, to be sure that some don't know something that others don't.

Here the disinformation has been so ludicrous, the lack of disclosure so ridiculous, the misdirection so nonstop that it is simply inconceivable that everyone has the same information available to trade on. That's the darned law, for heaven's sake. It isn't something I made up. We aren't supposed to have situations where some know information and others don't. Given the nature of the talks involving so many parties and the leaks that are happening left and right, does this feel like a place where the average investor is getting a fair shake? I don't think so. How anyone could even disagree with that notion is the height of naiveté.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Halt this unfair trading in Fannie and Freddie

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Fannie and Freddie could be the martyrs

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the common would be crushed on a government takeover, but everything else would be saved.

The most important positive that must occur in this economy is for housing to stop going down. It is even more important than oil going down, because it cuts to the core of consumer confidence and credit.

House prices are coming down, but that's not enough. We also need lower mortgage rates, and the spread between the mortgage rates and Treasuries is so high that it's hard to make case that you are getting any sort of bargain at all on the money you are trying to borrow. It should be a great time to buy a house -- no demand, plenty of supply -- but mortgage rates are just too high.

But we all know how they would go down and go down big -- if Treasury took over Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) this weekend. If you back off Fannie's and Freddie's bonds, you get a decline in rates of mammoth proportions. It might make sense to buy a house simply because the rates would be so low.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Fannie and Freddie could be the martyrs

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The SEC's waffling will be deadly

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this administration's hallmark is coming too late to the party.

A headline came over the wires yesterday, and it caused me to throw my hands up in shock: The SEC is debating new short-selling rules for the market.

I said to myself, "They have to be kidding."

How can they be so obtuse?

How can they not get what is going on?

When the market bottomed on July 15, three things occurred:

the Congress got religion on the housing bill, and the president went along;

gasoline and oil peaked; and

the SEC finally decided to crack down on the reckless bear raids that were making it impossible for our financials to refinance.

The financials then rallied huge, just huge, and the prudent ones, like Merrill's (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) John Thain, took advantage of the short-selling crackdown and first, brilliantly, said he didn't need capital, exacerbating the plight of the shorts, and then jammed on a gigantic equity offering that will let Merrill get through this period.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The SEC's waffling will be deadly

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Institutions are flooding the nat gas futures

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's a big disconnect between the trade, orchestrated by the funds, and the real-world demand.

How can anyone actually own oil or natural gas through this relentless assault on price? I know when it was going up, the talk was that all of these new funds were indexing trillions to commodities and it was just going to stay there, and that's why there was a new level of oil demand.

Can those same accounts come in every day and take this relentless pasting no matter what the news? And do they believe the news, that they are losing money today because some storm went to Daytona and not to New Orleans?

Yesterday, I had Jim Hackett, the CEO of Anadarko Pete (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take) on "Mad Money at the Half," and he was flabbergasted at the activity in the futures pit and how unrealistic it has become. He's focused on natural gas, where he says the demand at $8 by industry -- the glass makers and chemical companies and steel and aluminum users -- is voracious. But the futures themselves just keep going down, regardless of the demand.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Institutions are flooding the nat gas futures

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Retail's rally is the key here

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lower gas prices mean the numbers are too low.

People are missing this retail move. They are missing it because the market is deciding right now that the guidance companies are giving is just plain wrong given the $3.50 at the pump (although premium's a lot more expensive). They are also recognizing that the strong are surviving and thriving and taking share in a radical fashion -- witness Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) (Cramer's Take), which must be killing Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) (Cramer's Take) and the mom-and-pop shops out there.

When I met with Lowe's last year, they told me that they have picked up share in every downturn. They did not know when the downturn would end or when you would see the results, but they were confident that the longer the downturn lasted, the more likely they would be to have pulled away from their competition.

It looks like this is the breakaway quarter.

Why else has there been so much dismissal of the management's negatives that you could see such great runs in a Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) (Cramer's Take) or a Buckle (NYSE: BKE) (Cramer's Take) or a Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take) or JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) (Cramer's Take) from the bottom?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Retail's rally is the key here

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Commodity collapse will buoy earnings

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer wonders why no one's cheering about this -- the headwinds are gone.

This is an epic collapse of commodities, one that is cutting every investor to the core. It is as if whoever was actually buying them -- not trading them, not speculating in them -- has vanished. That's how little demand there is. It is as if everyone in the world who was being paid in dollars now actually wants those dollars. It is as if all demand leading up to this moment for the last several years was all phony and disappeared. It is as if any country that was hoarding minerals and oil and grain no longer needs them. And it is as if every hedge fund in the world had purchased everything to sell into that demand and is now long the stuff and dying.

To me, all you need to watch is gold. The fact that gold could not hold that long-term trend line, that it sliced through $790, tells me that we are not done with this great unwind.

What's amazing is how silent it all is. We heard about how horrible this commodity rally was for the world every step of the way. With each dollar up of each commodity, we heard how it would destroy the Western world. How many times did you hear that the weak dollar would be the end of us?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Commodity collapse will buoy earnings

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-8.6311,179.60
NASDAQ-11.002,248.04
S&P 500-3.901,232.93

Last updated: September 05, 2008: 12:42 PM

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