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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil, Gas Stocks in a Tug of War

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says both oil futures and equity futures can move these hot issues.

Will the futures pull down the oil and gas stocks today? No, I don't mean the oil futures, I mean the equity futur

Last week when oil exploded, we caught two days of trading that dropped the stocks hard. We caught a bit of a bid in the nat gases like Chesapeake (NYSE:CHK) and Devon (NYSE:DVN) but at the end of the day, but the stocks were truly overwhelmed by the simple fact that they are in the indices.

This pattern has really held down the integrateds: last week Conoco (NYSE:COP) should have exploded, but it couldn't because it is such a big part of the S&P. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon (NYSE: XOM) are no different.

The natural gas stocks are not as big a factor, but they can be rocked down without a problem.

I am not saying to avoid looking at the oil futures. They can control the stocks. I am saying that the equity futures tide can take down anything, even when the oil futures spike hard.


Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil, Gas Stocks in a Tug of War

Goldman Sachs analyst bets on ConocoPhillips (COP)

Leading advisor Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus, reports that a Goldman Sachs analyst has chosen one of the stocks on his newsletter's buy list -- ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- as his top pick in the energy sector.

"There was an extremely interesting piece recently in Barron's by the oil analyst at Goldman Sachs who predicted $100 oil back in late 2004. We'd been buying energy stocks for almost a year at that point, but, although I expected oil prices to rise, I had no idea they'd go this high.

"In any case, the analyst, whose name is Arjun Murti, said he expects oil to reach $150 to $200 sometime within the next 24 months. The low end of that range is only a Middle East incident away, but the high end still seems like a reach, especially given weakening economic conditions.

Continue reading Goldman Sachs analyst bets on ConocoPhillips (COP)

Some oil stocks for your portofolio from Kiplinger

With the economy facing soaring crude oil prices for the past year, consumers and drivers have seen a major impact on their savings. It could seem as though the good old times are over. Gasoline at $4 a gallon is not something we can ignore, and if we take into account that Americans consume nearly 40% of the world's gasoline, you can see where the problems begin. So the surge in oil prices came with an imminent effect on consumers, who had to cut back on their spending.

But since we are already in this unpleasant situation, Kiplinger offers some solutions to help investors fight against high oil prices. Kiplinger underlines in this article that one smart move would be to minimize the cost of driving by making some good energy-related investments.

Gerry Jordan, manager of Jordan Opportunity, recommends investors invest in oil companies such as Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) and Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), citing strong international business. In addition, Jordan believes that higher crude prices will increase drilling demand. On the other hand, Jordan also loves power companies like Calpine Corp. (NYSE: CPN) and Reliant Energy Inc. (NYSE: RRI) as he anticipates huge power outages across the globe during this year.

Continue reading Some oil stocks for your portofolio from Kiplinger

Five scary stories for Friday the 13th

Gather around the campfire and let me tell you such scary stories Jason's mask would fail to impress you after that.

Of course, the theme that runs in the background of these scary stories is the state of the economy in the U.S., from the housing slump, inflation and soft labor markets to weak dollar, excessive government spending and increasing national debt load and trade gap.

1. Exxon Mobil and Oil

So scariest of all stories is oil. With prices reaching new records nearly daily, gas prices have also zoomed higher, crossing the $4 a gallon mark. Why, then, is Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) exiting the retail gas business. To be sure, BP (NYSE: BP) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) have either indicated taking such measures or have taken them already. Apparently, gas prices haven't been rising fast enough to keep pace, causing margins to narrow and for cents-earned-per-gallon to be dismal.

One would then think it's a good move by Exxon and the other oil giants to get out of the retail gas business, but I have questions. First, it's alarming that companies with revenues in the hundreds of billions of dollar look for ways to make even more money (even if YTD XOM is down 6.4%). Second, and most important, what could it mean for the consumer? As Doug McIntyre suggested, would the price of gas at the pump increase even more after the sale to private owners than when it was sold under Exxon? Scary indeed.

Continue reading Five scary stories for Friday the 13th

Companies that vanished: Standard Oil -- one giant becomes three

This post is part of a series on some of the most memorable companies that have disappeared.

Standard Oil (1870 - 1911) was the dominant oil company in the world until it was felled by the Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890. John D. Rockefeller was a business genius of the first order. He used his control over train routes and refineries to buy up oil wells and block competitors from taking market share.

Thanks to journalist Ida Tarbell, Rockefeller's rough business tactics got plenty of publicity. In 1911, the Supreme Court ruled that Standard Oil had violated the Sherman Anti-Trust Act through its tactics of using low prices to wipe out competitors. The result, as chronicled in one of my favorite books, Ron Chernow's Titan, was a breakup of the company into what is now Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).

The lesson: What didn't kill Standard Oil made its offspring stronger.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Let us know in the comments what you miss about Standard Oil. And be sure to check out other Companies That Have Vanished.

Option Update: ConocoPhillips volatility at 34; shares near record

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) closed at $92.17 Friday, shares near record on $137 oil.

WTI crude oil futures are recently down 1.08% to $137.04 according to Bloomberg.

COP overall option implied volatility of 34 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger movement.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX at 23.55; 10-day moving average is 19.72

Option Update is provided

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil stocks + dividends = good times

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the companies could deliver money to shareholders without sacrificing growth.

What happens if the oil companies start actually recognizing their good fortune -- their sustainable good fortune -- and start boosting dividends the way that Tidewater (NYSE: TDW) (Cramer's Take) did last week with its 67% hike.

Throughout this great run with oil and gas, it seems that the companies themselves haven't caught up with the good fortune. They haven't spent that much on drilling relative to profits, and they have chosen to buy a lot of stock back, never bad. But what if they start returning the profits to shareholders in the form of dividends?

I think that what could happen is that you wouldn't think that Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) (Cramer's Take) and Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) are such nose-bleeders.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil stocks + dividends = good times

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The ultimate burden of proof: profit

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says observers demand perfection, but the arrows slung at diverse thinking offer lessons in making money.

The level of perfection people demand, the level of performance they say they demand, the insistence on making money in any particular way, these are all part of what it is like to be, well, me.

One of the best calls I have ever had was with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take). It was a happenstance call, as so many really are but pros won't admit that because well, then why pay them? My daughter wanted a second iPod because she had a pink one and needed a blue one. It was that "fashion statement" wakeup call that told me the numbers for iPods in the analysts' reports were way too low.

I pushed the stock hard everywhere. When I got my own show on CNBC, I endlessly lauded Apple in the $70s, $80s and $90s, and made a major statement when I included it in my Four Horsemen of Tech.

At the end of the year I took it off the list, as I did with all the Horsemen except Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take). The $198 price reeked of greed.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The ultimate burden of proof: profit

Option Update; ConocoPhillips volatility flat; shares near record

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is recently trading up 85 cents to $93.17.

WTI crude oil futures are recently up 0.18% to $133.41 according to Bloomberg.

COP overall option implied volatility of 31 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional movement.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 27c to 18.26.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Before the bell: Futures higher as oil bursts through $135

Stock futures were a little higher early Thursday morning as stocks seemed poised for a rebound after plunging the last two straight sessions and as oil crossed $135 per barrel.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks dropped sharply, again, as oil continued to rally, breaking new highs throughout the day and as the FOMC minutes indicated the Federal Reserve expects higher inflation and slower economic growth. The Dow industrials finished the day down 227 points, or 1.77%, the same as the Nasdaq Composite which lost 43 points, and the S&P 500 declined 22 points, or 1.61%.

Not much economic news today except for weekly jobless claims, but no doubt investors will continue to focus on the surging price of oil, now blamed also on Wall Street as traders are scrambling to cover bets. Oil prices rose above $135 to $135.09 a barrel for the first time Thursday, as supply concerns continued increased with reports that the International Energy Agency would cut its supply predictions. Even with assumption that global demand possibly weakening, the weakening U.S dollar drove crude futures up. Still, some blame the oil's rally due to traders covering wrong-way bets that prices would decline and buying crude, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Continue reading Before the bell: Futures higher as oil bursts through $135

Before the bell: INTC, LEH, COP, GM, GS, BRK.a ...

Before the bell: Stock futures mixed as Microsoft resumes talks with Yahoo

The New York Times Bits blog says that according to several label executives, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has approached some of the major music labels to try to expand the variety of ringtones and other musical features for the iPhone. The negotiations are very active right now and a final deal has not been set, but will likely be during the summer, but after June 9. Ringtones are quite a profitable market, and Apple wanting to have ringtones from major label makes total sense. Apple also wants to offer Answer Tones for the iPhone.

Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) said Monday its venture capital arm has invested 50 million ringgit ($16 million) in Malaysia's Green Packet Berhad to help develop the country's first nationwide high-speed WiMAX network. Already earlier this month, Intel Capital along with Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG), Comcast Corp (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Time Warner Cable Inc (NYSE: TWC), and Bright House Networks agreed to invest $3.2 billion into a new company to speed up deployment of the next-generation mobile WiMAX network. But that's not all. Intel Capital also expects to close half a dozen deals in India this year, its regional head said on Monday.

Warren Buffett is apparently on the prowl for another acquisition. The Oracle of Omaha has begun his European tour Monday, looking for possible acquisitions for his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A).

Continue reading Before the bell: INTC, LEH, COP, GM, GS, BRK.a ...

Newspaper wrap-up: General Dynamics may win MoD contract

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • According to senior industry sources, the Financial Times reported that the Ministry of Defense could ask General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) to provide the vehicle design for a new generation of armored vehicles for the army. It is unclear whether General Dynamics, in competition with Nexter and Artec, will be awarded the contract or will be named the preferred bidder.
  • Following the collapse in March of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC), the Financial Times also reported that the SEC will soon require Wall Street banks to publicly disclose more details about liquidity and capital positions. Cox also urged lawmakers to pass legislation that would allow the SEC, or another regulator, the "explicit mandate to supervise" investment banks.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • According to the New York Times, Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will move senior investment banker Alberto Verme to Dubai by the end of the month in the hopes of establishing a stronger foothold in the region, a crucial area for global banks.
  • The New York Times also reported that several large oil companies, including BP Plc (NYSE: BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), agreed to pay nearly $423M in cash in order to settle a lawsuit that alleged water contamination from methyl tertiary butyl ether, a gasoline additive. Under the terms of the deal, the oil giants also agreed to pay 70% of the future cleanup costs for the next 30 years. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and several other companies named in the suit did not agree to the deal.

Analyst upgrades: WB, COP, ACS, AEP and CNX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wachovia, American Electric Power and Consol Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded Wachovia (NYSE: WB), citing valuation and recent capital actions.
  • Bank of America upgraded American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP), citing the new Ohio rate structure which will provide steady growth.
  • Merrill upgraded Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX) based on higher coal prices.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman upgraded the Integrated Oils sector based on risk/reward relative to oil prices. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is the firm's favorite pick.
  • Affiliated Computer Services (NYSE: ACS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Goldman expects Affiliated to do well in the current slower macro backdrop and views shares as relatively insulated to government cutbacks.

Earnings highlights: Ford, Boeing, McDonald's, PepsiCo, JetBlue and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Ford, Boeing, McDonald's, PepsiCo, JetBlue and others

ConocoPhillips (COP) lower despite higher first-quarter profit

Shares of oil company ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) have lost a little over 2% in early morning trading, even as the company posted a growth of almost 17% for its first-quarter profit. The decline came as a reaction to lower crude oil prices that retreated below $115 a barrel on recovery in the U.S. dollar, dragging down energy stocks.

ConocoPhillips reported its quarterly profit rose to $4.14 billion, compared with $3.55 billion a year ago, boosted by record oil prices which recently jumped above $118 a barrel due to tight supplies and the weak dollar. The company posted earnings of $2.62 a share, topping analysts' predictions for $2.42, according to Thomson Financial. Its quarterly revenue also rose up to $54.9 billion from $41.3 billion a year ago.

The company's exploration and production business saw a gain of 24% to $2.89 billion, helped by increased commodity prices. The third-largest U.S. oil company also said that during the quarter it had to face declining volumes and higher taxes that put pressure on its refining operations earnings. "Although we delivered solid financial results during the first quarter, unplanned downtime negatively impacted our performance," ConocoPhillips' chairman and chief executive stated.

Continue reading ConocoPhillips (COP) lower despite higher first-quarter profit

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Last updated: July 05, 2008: 05:37 AM

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